Why St. Paul's DFL Mayor Supports Bush

Posted 10:58 p.m., Aug. 5, 2004

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What follows I didn't write. Instead it is being republished, with permission by the author, from a post placed on the Minnesota Politics Discussion list.

The author Dan Dobson is a St. Paul attorney and community activist. I don't know what to make of his post; I don't have the inside information he claims to have--information that he will only say comes from someone with inside familiarity with the Kelly camp.

But it is an interesting analysis of a St. Paul mayor who has followed his predecessor by coming into office a Democrat, then shifting loyalties. Mayor Kelly, as it happens, remains for now a Democrat. But his support from the DFL side appears to be eroding. Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Nick Coleman wryly called Kelly "the outgoing mayor" of St. Paul.

-- Kevin Featherly

. . .

O.K., this is the analysis I got from the inside.

The Republicans plan to run Mark Kennedy against Mark Dayton is 2006. Now, with Patty Wetterling in the race, Kennedy's future is not all that secure, so the Republicans need a backup plan.

Just like when Cheney called Pawlenty in 2002, or was it late 2001, and got him to drop out of the Senate race, to clear the way for Coleman to run against Wellstone, the Republicans are trying to "double-down" and cover their bets with Kelly. If Kennedy wins this fall, he's their boy in 2006 against Dayton. If Kennedy loses, they look towards Kelly, assuming that he wins election next year. If Kelly loses his bid for re-election, the Republicans are no worse off, then they are now, and if he wins they have another useful tool.

Kelly clearly wants higher office, (or needs another public sector position, he hasn't had a job in private sector in over 20 years), but he doesn't dare run against Betty McCollum or Mark Dayton as a Democrat, there is no way he can win the primary.

Like Coleman, being a conservative pro-life, pro-big business Democrat, the only way Kelly can try and go higher is as a Republican. The only question is when does he switch parties, before or after next years Mayoral election. (I can't prove anything but this whole thing has Eric Mische's fingerprints all over it.)

The only problem with this plan is that Kelly is no Norm Coleman, and he and his son Ryan, his campaign manager, fail to realize that.

1. Kelly doesn't have the base of support Norm did. Kelly couldn't even win two of the three city council races for the candidates he endorsed last fall.

2. Kelly has no successes to point to like Coleman; where are Kelly's Lawson Software's, Minnesota Wild, new arena and Science Museum?

3. Kelly does not have Coleman's charisma, (whatever you want to say about Norm, he can charm you), Kelly just knows how to browbeat people.

4. Kelly's just not as bright as Norm. With Howard Orenstein fleeing the sinking ship and jumping to Amy Klobacher's Office in Minneapolis, Kelly's I.Q., just dropped 10 points. Look at his silly fight over the smoking ordinance. He had an opportunity to proclaim himself as a "leader" by signing the first city-wide non-smoking ban in the state, but the City still dickers around, with Kelly not wanting to lose the support and money of the bar owners, which he needs for re-election and his ever-elusive Twins Stadium.

5. Kelly's hair, (would someone tell him that greased back look went out in 1958?) Hey that might sell on the east side of St. Paul, but the suburbanites of Eden Prairie and Maple Grove will just think he's greasy.

But then isn't he?

-- Dan Dobson, St. Paul

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