"All that is old and already formed can continue to live only if it allows within itself the conditions of a new beginning."
How Kerry Became
Dubya's Vice PresidentPosted 9:55 p.m., June 25, 2004
Updated 11:24 a.m., July 9, 2004
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I've been messing around with a fun little interactive item on the Los Angeles Times' Web site, the 2004 Electoral Vote Tracker.
In doing so, I have uncovered a strikingly plausible scenario in which John Kerry and George W. Bush end up after Election Day tied in electoral votes--269-269. A dead heat.
By rules laid out in the Constitution, that would throw the election to the U.S. House of Representatives, which would then choose the next president. (Which at least is better than giving it back to those black-robed Supremes.) Of course, that scenario heavily favors another Bush presidential term, since the House now seems safely Republican.
But weirdly, in the wildest case, a tie after Election Day could lead to a Bush-Kerry administration.
I am not kidding.
How it Works
This plays out simply by dividing up what the L.A. Times identifies as "swing states," those in which a candidate's lead in the latest polls falls within that poll's margin of error.
Here's my scenario, in which the battle for two key northern tier states--Minnesota and Wisconsin--plays out as crucial.
Give the following states to Bush:
States Bush Wins (electoral votes) Alabama
(9)Alaska
(3)Arizona
(10)Arkansas
(6)Colorado
(9)Delaware
(3)Florida
(27)Georgia
(15)Idaho
(4)Indiana
(11)Iowa
(7)Kansas
(6)Kentucky
(8)Louisiana
(9)Nevada
(5)Michigan
(17)Mississippi
(6)Missouri
(11)Montana
(3)Nebraska
(5)New Hampshire
(4)New Mexico
(5)North Dakota
(3)Oklahoma
(7)South Carolina
(8)South Dakota
(3)Texas
(34)Utah
(5)Virginia
(13)Wisconsin
(10)Wyoming
(3)
TOTAL BUSH ELECTORAL VOTES = 269 That's 31 states for the president, most of them possessing single-digit Electoral College counts. However, this scenario gives the president credit for winning some of the key swing states, including Arizona's 10 electoral votes, Michigan's 17, Florida's 27, and--perhaps most importantly--Wisconsin's 10.
OK, now here are the states I'm giving Kerry.
States Kerry Wins (electoral votes) California
(55)Connecticut
(7)Hawaii
(4)Illinois
(21)Maine
(4)Massachusetts
(12)Maryland
(10)Minnesota
(10)New Jersey
(15)New York
(31)North Carolina
(15)Ohio
(20)Oregon
(7)Pennsylvania
(21)Rhode Island
(4)Tennessee
(11)Vermont
(3)Washington
(11)Wash., D.C.
(3)West Virginia
(5)This gives Kerry four of the key battleground states--Pennsylvania (21 votes), Ohio (20 votes), Washington (11 votes) and Minnesota (10). It denies him Florida's 27 and Michigan's 17 votes. And, perhaps less plausibly it gives Kerry North Carolina. But now that Kerry has sealed the veep deal and tapped that state's Democratic Sen. John Edwards as his vice presidential running mate, that state is very much in play.
TOTAL KERRY ELECTORAL VOTES = 269
A Deadlock
All in all, nothing shocking has to happen to make this scenario come true--though it would be stunning if this precise chain of events really took place. Kerry would have to win Tennessee, Al Gore's home state that went to Bush in 2000, and where he the president now leads 48-44 percent. But the polls show 9 percent of undecided voters, so Tennessee just might tilt the Democrat's way.
Bottom line, this thing could actually happen. According to the latest polls, Bush is leading Kerry in Arizona 44 percent to 41 percent. He's leading 49-40 in Colorado, 44-42 in Wisconsin. he's losing 43-45 in Michigan (again, within the margin of error, meaning he might actually be ahead), and losing 46-47 in Florida (same thing). He could win them all.
On the other hand, he's losing by just a point in Pennsylvania, and if that went to the Bush column, the game would be over.
There are many ways to bring the race to a close with just a couple of electoral college points separating the winner from the loser. There are even more ways to make the race come out a draw. (One alternate tie-game scenario that might even be more likely than the one I've outlined above would put North Carolina in the Bush camp and move Wisconsin and New Mexico into the Kerry column.)
But the one I outline in the tables above makes some eerie sense. And as I said earlier, Minnesota and Wisconsin--both of which have 10 Electoral College votes to offer--could be the key sticks in the logjam.
Obviously, if both states go for either Kerry or Bush, the race is over. But a split is looking increasingly possible. In Wisconsin, in a three-way race with Nader in the mix, Bush currently leads 44-42, with Nader polling at 4 percent and the undecideds accounting for a fairly whopping 10 percent of potential voters.
In Minnesota, Bush trails Kerry 41-43 percent, with Nader polling just 2 percent and the undecided comprising an even bigger 13 percent. So not only could these two states split, either could go either way. (And of course, both could go to either Bush or Kerry, tilting the balance to either of the candidates.)
So what happens if there really is a tie? Let's let the L.A. Times explain.
An Electoral College tie would send the presidential election to the House of Representatives in January 2005, after the newly elected representatives are sworn in.Each state delegation gets one vote. Republicans currently control 30 state delegations and Democrats 15. Four are tied. Vermont's single seat is held by an independent.
Unless the composition of the House changes significantly, a tie makes a Bush victory likely. (Also, in a tie, the vice president is chosen by a majority of the Senate.)
-- The Los Angeles Times
A-Ha!
Consider for a moment the implications of that last parenthetical sentence.
The Senate, as you probably know, is now under the control of the Republicans, which holds a single-seat majority. But now, with the exit of sex-scandal-plagued Illinois Republican Jack Ryan from that state's U.S. Senate race, the GOP's Senate's majority is very much in question.
That didn't appear to be the case just last November, when four southern Democrats announced their pending retirements. But then three Republican senators also said they would be retiring--leaving seven seats, including the one that Ryan was seeking, up for grabs. And the GOP doesn't think it has time to mount an effective race in Illinois before November, so they basically are ceding that race to the Democrats.
That means six open seats really are up for grabs, while two incumbents, one an Alaska Republican, the other Democrat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, are considered vulnerable.
So it's hard to say where the Senate goes.
But here's a crazy scenario, one which links up to our imagined tie in the presidential Electoral College.
Let's say Bush is voted in by the House after the election ends in an Electoral College draw. And let’s say the Senate has fallen under Democratic control.
Who do you think the Democrats would choose if it really were up to them to select a vice president? If you said Dick Cheney, please pass the duchy.
How about this? The Senate selects John Kerry--as vice president. It would be the first split-party presidential ticket since Adams-Jefferson two centuries ago.
And why not? Kerry has already signaled his willingness to split the party unity of the presidency and the vice presidency for the good of the country when he courted the GOP's John McCain to be his veep. Seems likely he'd accept the assignment. And if he didn't, who might be waiting in the wings?
Well, this guy Clinton sure has been making his presence felt again lately....
-- Kevin Featherly
