Gov. Scott Walker is 3 percentage points ahead in the final poll before tomorrow’s recall election in Wisconsin. But there is an opening for Barrett, who has closed the gap in recent weeks, according to Public Policy Polling.
This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker’s still the favorite but Barrett’s prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
Walker is leading in the expected places and with the expected demos–he is ahead in the suburbs of Milwaukee, and leads among men, whites generally, and seniors. Barrett is winning in Madison, in Milwaukee County, among women and young voters.
Where Barrett gets his outside shot is his lead among independent voters, by a 48-46 margin. Under normal circumstances, that might prove decisive, considering that as many voters self-identify as independents as Republicans (34 percent each). But these are anything but normal circumstances.
The reason (Barrett) continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday’s election than Democrats are.