Nate Silver, the baseball-stat nerd who has become the nation’s most accurate election prognosticator, has an intriguing numerical breakdown of Al Franken’s odds of overcoming his tiny deficit in the disputed U.S. Senate race against Norm Coleman.
You need to read pretty deep into the column to get what Silver is driving at, and you’re going to have to be patient with all the numbers and matrices–not to mention his somewhat waffling conclusion.
But bear with him, and you’ll see that Silver makes a pretty compelling case to suggest that Franken has nearly even odds of overcoming Coleman’s slim lead when the recount ends.
Worth noting: Silver’s numbers are based on slightly old data. At the point Silver put his report together, Coleman led Franken by 226 votes. That margin has since been reduced to 206 votes. That would suggest a slight corresponding improvement in Franken’s odds.
Of course, the lawyers are all over this one. There is little chance this will be resolved without going to court, regardless of the final recount tally.
Get ready, folks. Minnesota is about to stage its own highly provincial version of Bush v. Gore.